Friday, April 11, 2008

Jason Altmire, Melissa Hart, Hillary

I hope you'll read the column below about Melissa Hart, who is running to regain her congressional seat in Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district. You can find her web site here.

Starting this weekend, I'm be writing more about Melissa Hart and her opponent, a loathesome creature named Jason Altmire. He won in 2006 mainly by spewing falsehoods about Melissa --she called them "a pack of lies" -- and by making false promises to the voters of the 4th congressional district (where I live). For example, he told the voters he opposed a "timetable" for withdrawal from Iraq. However, when he got to Congress and Nancy Pelosi and John Murtha showed him the Democratic "trick," he fell all over himself to vote for the timetable. He claimed to be pro-life, but in Washington he voted for federal funding of embryonic stem-cell research. He claimed -- and claims -- to be a conservative Democrat, but he voted for the largest tax increase in history. His motto seems to be: "Ask me no questions, and I'll tell you no truths." He's a piece of work, and he must be defeated.

Friday evening about 7 p.m. Eastern I'll put up this weekend's column about why Senator Hillary Clinton should not withdraw from the Democratic Primary race. I'll back up my argument with some information you haven't seen before. Why you haven't seen it -- and especially, why the Clinton campaign isn't heralding it -- are the big questions.

You've heard that Obama has won the most pledged delegates, the most states, and the most popular votes. All that is true (although it doesn't include popular votes from Michigan and Florida, both of which Clinton won), but it is one of those truths that may contain a larger falsehood.

Here's "Lexington's" unique analysis (in The Economist, April 5-11) of Senator Clinton's situation: "She can . . . make a plausible case that she is the stronger candidate."

How? "She [can make the point that] she so far [has] won 14 states with 44% of the country's population (16 states with 53% of the population if you include Florida and Michigan) compared with [Obama's] 27 states with 34% of the population. She has won Florida and Ohio, two battleground states, and will almost certainly win [another,] Pennsylvania."

The main mistake the Clinton campaign made was to pay little attention to the caucus states, starting with Iowa and extending to places like Wyoming and Idaho. Obama wounded her with a thousand cuts in the smaller states, and that's a major reason he's ahead in pledged delegates.
Another element that hurt her was the bloc voting by Blacks in states like South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, and Louisiana.

Is Senator Obama going to win SC, GA, MS, and LA? He's not going to come close to winning any of them. In the general election, he's going to have real problems winning most of the large states Mrs. Clinton carried in the primaries (such as TX, OH, and PA). Obama will do better than Kerry in many of the "red states," but he looks unlikely to win any of them.

Overall, things are looking very good for John McCain.

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