Sunday, April 20, 2008

Hillary Winning in PA, Nationwide

On Sunday, April 20, the results of the latest Gallup "Tracking Poll" were released. They showed Hillary Clinton leading nationally among Democrats by one percentage point. A week ago, Obama's lead in the Gallup Poll was about 11 points, so there's been a dramatic drop in his national support.

In Pennsylvania, the average of polls shows Mrs. Clinton's lead at about five points.

Some analysts, including this one, believe it's entirely possible that Clinton will win in the Keystone State by approximately 10 percentage points. I've guessed it will be approximately 55% to 45%, although it could conceivably be by as much as 57% to 43%. Clinton is stronger in Pennsylvania than you might have been hearing on TV. Right now, she's tied or leading in every demographic except Blacks and the wealthiest of Democrats.

If Mrs. Clinton has a double-digit win in Pennsylvania, look for to call on Super Delegates to support her. Presumably, she will point directly to the Gallup Poll as illustrating that she's the most electable candidate. She would have a powerful argument in her favor.

Clearly, Obama has been hurt by two factors: (1) his "bitter" comments about small town America; (2) his poor performance in the recent debate. The national media, many of whom obviously support Obama, have been slow to report on the dramatic changes taking place in the Democratic race.

Keep a close eye on those Gallup Tracking Polls. If Senator Clinton extends her lead, the Democratic race may become more chaotic than it already is. My own guess? That the battle will go right to the convention floor in Denver, an eventuality that will help John McCain.


Brad Marston said...

Hillary needs to win big in PA...probably 10pts to stay viable. NoBama has already conceded PA with his campaign's "reduce expectations" spin. I think his campaign knows they will lose PA large and are trying to moderate the damage.

Between, Bill Ayers, Rev. Wright, Micheele NoBama on Pride in America and "bitter" I don't see how the man is electable.

For the Dems it seems to be "pick your poison."

Stephen R. Maloney said...

Brad: I agree that Obama is not electable. In 2004, Bush lost PA by 48% to 51%. I believe John McCain will win PA by a significant margin, and I'm also predicting he will win Ohio and even New Jersey. If Obama believes he's been hit hard by Hillary, he "ain't seen nothing yet."