NOTE: AFTER THE PENNSYLVANIA PRIMARY ON APRIL 22, I'LL BE PROVIDING MORE INFORMATION ON WHAT'S KNOWN AS "THE COUNTRY'S MOST IMPORTANT CONGRESSIONAL RACE." IT PITS FORMER CONGRESSWOMAN MELISSA HART AGAINST CONGRESSMAN JASON ALTMIRE. THE BATTLE IS TAKING PLACE IN PENNSYLVANIA'S 4TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, THE ONE WHERE I LIVE. IF YOU SCROLL DOWN, YOU'LL SEE EARLY COMMENTS ON THE HART-ALTMIRE CONFLICT.
After looking at various polls and making my own determinations, I predict Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic contest by 55% to 45% over Barack Obama. I'm forceasting that she will do a little worse than the Survey USA poll, which showed her ahead by 14 points -- and somewhat better than the Franklin & Marshall Poll, which showed her roughly five-six points ahead. Obama's sneering comments about Pennsyvanians clinging to religion and guns have hurt him slightly among Democrats -- and greatly among Independents and Republicans, who can't vote in the Democratic primary. Obama has sewed up the vote among those Democrats (urban and well-to-do) who have a perpetual sneer.
I'll have more this weekend, including why I think John McCain has an excellent chance of winning PA in the general election.
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